How did the real estate market in Truckee and north tahoe do in 2018?
Greetings and happy 2019! I'm happy to report that although there seems to be some unease in the minds of some owners, prospective buyers and agents that I speak with, the local market continues to do very well. Driven by an unrelentingly strong Bay Area economy, buyers continue to outnumber sellers. Inventory has remained relatively low for the whole year, while going through its normal seasonal swings. As is normal for winter, our inventory is declining and is very much in line with where we were last year. Let's look at some year over year numbers, courtesy of David Hipkins of Dickson Realty.
As usual, I am using Tahoe Donner sales numbers as a bellwether for the Truckee/North Tahoe Market, and the numbers look pretty close to where we ended up in 2017. First, lets look at some similarities: In 2018 there were 277 single family sales in Tahoe Donner, compared with 278 the year before. How's that for close? One clear difference is that people are buying more expensive homes. To see that, we just need to look at the number of condos sold. Most condos in Tahoe Donner are considered entry level for TD properties. The number of condos sold in 2018 dropped sharply from 81 to 56, while average prices for these stayed very consistent over the course of the year. This is evidence of buyers going after more of the mid level to higher end properties. Further evidence of this is the increase in the average and median prices for single family homes. The average went from $730,000 in 2017 to $771,700 in 2018, an increase of 5.6%. That does not mean, however that all price ranges increased by that amount. It does indicate an increase in higher end homes sold year over year. One very bullish sign here is the number of vacant lot sales. This is evidence of local builders seeing a path to be able to profitably sell their spec homes in 2019. It is also worth noting that the number of vacant lots in Tahoe Donner is down to 607. That is getting pretty low and the idea of total buildout in Tahoe Donner is becoming more real each year.
So what's going to happen with real estate in 2019? That would depend on several factors. Will there be a national recession? How will the tech industry do in the next year or two? Are there enough well paying jobs in Truckee and North Tahoe to support home prices for the locals? Will we have good snowfall this winter? These are all factors that will determine the supply and demand for homes in the coming year. While I don't know how it will go, we have seen that our market has always done well in the long term. We have a very limited amount of land that can be developed. Urban sprawl is not an option here. We are bounded by both geopolitical and and physical boundaries in our ability to build lots of housing here. Truckee/Tahoe is surrounded by Forest Service Land, National Forest and unbuildable mountainous terrain. This inherent supply limitation bodes well for the market long term. Also, the Town of Truckee has been soliciting the advice of locals as to what kind of building should happen in Truckee going forward. I was recently at a town housing meeting attended by around 150 people and by far the locals are asking for more affordable housing to be built in and around the downtown area. Single family homes came in dead last as far as what the attendees wanted to be built. Most wanted medium to high density apartments and condos to help reduce the strain of the local housing crisis. Middle to low wage earners simply can't find places to rent in the area. This has been worsened by the proliferation of short term vacation rentals in the area. If the building focus begins to shift away from single family homes, this will further strengthen the existing market.
Let me know if you have any questions, or if there is anything I can help you with!
Happy October, I hope this update finds you well! The Truckee/North Tahoe real estate market continues its upward trend. Here are some stats for the year so far. These stats are all from Tahoe Donner, and courtesy of David Hipkins, Realtor, and good friend.
Tahoe Donner has about 5100 completed single family homes. There are currently 55 on the market, or just over 1%. Nationally, this is a very low number, but not uncommon for TD and Truckee in general. It is definitely indicative of a strong market. On this date last year, there were 67 on the market. Today there are 33 homes in escrow, and 44 this time last year. For single family homes sold year to date, we are at 206, compared with 199 on this date last year. The average and median home sold prices in Tahoe Donner this year are $771k and $715k respectively, compared with $706k and $660k for this time last year. This is a big bump, but I should mention that this is for all price ranges in Tahoe Donner. This doesn't mean that a similar home is up this much year after year. While comparable properties are certainly up year after year, this rise in average home prices also reflects buyers purchasing nicer homes at a faster rate than previous years. Our market is largely tied to the Bay Area economy, which is still running full steam.
Condo sales are telling a different story. There are currently 14 active, with 9 active last year. There are 3 under contract, compared with 13 last year. And as far as total sales year to date, we are at 41 compared with 58 last year. We see buyers putting more emphasis on picking up homes than condos this year, which is not uncommon for a year that trends upward.
Vacant lots are in very high demand. We have sold 40 in TD this year compared with 28 on this date last year. The spec builders are definitely at it and are scooping up good vacant lots quickly. Despite this, the prices for vacant lots are flat in the last 12 months, which is surprising.
Interest rates are definitely on the rise now, with conforming loans now breaching 5%. It is hard to know if this will continue in a significant way, stay flat or drop again. But with both the national, and Bay Area economies roaring, we may see rates continue to rise, and possibly slowing down the market at some point.
If you have any questions for me regarding the local real estate market, feel free to leave a comment for me here or contact me directly, my information in all on the website. Thanks, and enjoy the fall!
1.) Winter has returned!
Truckee got more than a foot of snow today, and was only forecast to get around half off that. There is a bigger storm coming on Thursday, so the skiing and riding is about to get much better.
2.) available home inventory has hit the lowest level I have seen in the 12 years I have been in Truckee real estate!
Today in Tahoe Donner, a bellwether for the Truckee and North Tahoe market, the number of single family homes for sale is 18. Eighteen homes, out of over 5000 homes, are for sale. This represents around 1/3rd of 1% of the existing homes in Tahoe Donner. This is a very strong seller's market. I should mention a couple of caveats. One, we usually hit our low inventory level for the year in February or March, and inventory will start climbing in the spring, as it does every year. Secondly, with rates starting to climb and the possibility of an inflationary environment creeping in, buyer demand may even strengthen this year. For current owners, this is a great situation to be in. And for those looking to purchase property here, there will be a reasonable time this summer when inventory starts to creep up. Being patient will be the key to finding a good home at a fair market price. If you are looking to buy or sell this year, let's check in and talk about your timing. In the mean time, let's ski!
What to do in Truckee when winter doesn't come
As I'm sure you know by now, snow in the Sierra has been hard to come by this year. The skiers, riders and resorts are not having a great year. So as a local or devoted Truckee/North Tahoe visitor, what do you do? The answer is get outside! There is so much to do here right now. In the last week, I've hiked, rode my mountain bike and fished! There is a tremendous opportunity to enjoy our incredible outdoor playground when winter decides to not show up, or just show up late. Hopefully it is the latter, as we have had too much of the former in the last 6 years. As I write this, we have a very cold front moving in and we are expecting a bit of snow later today, followed by some extreme cold in the early parts of this week. This could also bring some ice skating into play if you are careful and know where to skate, and more importantly, where not to skate. There is a local Facebook Group, Truckee Tahoe Ice Skating, where some discuss ice conditions on our lakes and reservoirs. So if you live here, or are just planning a trip this winter, thing creatively. If the skiing is scarce, find something else to do. Need suggestions? Give me a call!
a nice rainbow taken 2/17/18 at boca reservoir
Greetings and happy February! I hope that winter is going well for you and that you only had to live through Groundhog Day once. Lets have a look at the January sales numbers. In Tahoe Donner, our bellwether for Truckee, there were 15 sales in January compared to 14 the previous year. The average sale price was $812,500 compared with $743,000 the previous January. There are currently 28 single family homes active in Tahoe Donner, which is around one half of one percent of available homes actively for sale, meaning supply is scarce! Demand continues to be high for homes and condos here, despite the weak snow fall we have seen so far this year. This could be a result of many things, not the least of which are:
1.) The expected rise of interest rates this year and for the foreseeable future
2.) The possible resurgence of an inflationary environment - which may bode well for real estate across the board
3.) The finite number of homes and homesites available in our market
Right now the sellers are holding all the cards, and if you are considering selling your home in Truckee or North Tahoe, right now may be your best time. If you are looking to buy here, waiting until summer may offer the luxury or more choices of properties and relatively lower competition for each listing.
Let me know if you have any questions, I'm here to help!
Some photos from Boca
I thought I would share some photos I took last week of a family hike around Boca Reservoir, shot with the new Light L16 camera. If you haven't heard of this camera Google it, it is amazing. And fits in your pocket!
What a Year!
First, Happy New Year to all! I hope your 2017 closed out well and that 2018 is happy and prosperous.
Our local real estate market in 2017 was very strong. Due in part to the very snowy 2016-2017 winter, buyer demand was strong throughout the year. Combined with low housing turnover, our available inventory remained quite low. As I write this, there are only 33 homes on the market in Tahoe Donner, out of over 5000 homes! Buyers commonly found themselves in multiple offer situations, and home prices were often bid up. This was especially prevalent in the larger, newer homes. Here are some year over year numbers to give you an idea of where prices have been going:
From October 1st to December 31st 2016 Here are some median and average prices, followed by the same for 2017. These reflect homes in the main housing areas of Truckee - Tahoe Donner, Sierra Meadows/Ponderosa Palisades, Prosser, Glenshire, Donner Lake and Donner Summit. They do not include the exclusive golf communities as they skew the numbers quite a bit.
10/1/2016 - 12/31/2016
Median - $550,000
Average - $605,000
Median - $675,000
Average - $723,000
10/1/2017 - 12/31/2017
Median - $580,000
Average - $604,000
Median - $785,000
Average - $887,000
For 3 bedroom homes in this market snapshot, average prices are about even, and median prices up 5.5%. For the 4 bedroom homes the average is up almost 23% with median prices up over 16%!
As you may already know, our real estate market as a whole reflects the economy in the Bay Area. It should be no surprise that demand is strong for good homes. As you also probably know, our ski season is off to a late start, but we do have snow in the forecast this week. Everyone up here is doing the snow dance and hoping that things stay cold. It is impossible to know how a weak ski season, it stays like this will affect supply and demand come spring and summer. Stay tuned for market updates, and feel free to contact me directly if I can answer any questions.
Speed Trap locations
A quick heads up to Tahoe Donner owners, Truckee PD just shared on its Facebook page the locations for their traffic enforcement this weekend. Their goal, to try to get traffic to slow down, is an honorable one. To that end, please drive slow in and around TD this weekend. More and more children and dogs are out. Here is the map they just put out of their planned enforcement locations. Have a great weekend!
June 2017 - Balanced market and spring home chores to not overlook
As we roll through the last days of spring, we are seeing a very active and increasingly healthy real estate market. The last year, and especially the last 4 months have been fairly one sided as there was very little inventory available, and buyers were active in numbers. Buyer interest is still strong, and that is now being balanced out by our spring listing season. Our inventory is increasing, even while buyers are snapping up homes, sometimes within a few days of hitting the market. Loan rates remain low, very low, with my last quote at 4% for a 30 year fixed with no points on loans up to $424,100. But the increased inventory remains the big news and brings some equilibrium to our market.
Current owners should be looking to get their spring chores done on their homes. Have a good look at your roof, did it take any damage from the heavy snow we had this year? Roofers are busy, so if you need repairs you need to get on their schedules early if you want the repairs completed before winter. Also, make sure you open up your crawl space vents to get the airflow moving through that area. This is the easiest way to prevent water related issues down the road. If you have irrigation systems, crank them up and check for leaks. Mountain Hardware carries parts if you need to replace anything.
Here are the sales for May in Tahoe Donner for both homes and condos.
Also, here are the year over year statistics to see how our market is doing compared to this date last year:
Stats courtesy of David Hipkins, Dickson Realty
How we are doing compared to last year at this time.
Numbers courtesy of David Hipkins, Dickson Realty. Thanks David!